Lowering Economic Growth Forecast

Fears of general global economic slowdown because of the novel coronavirus continue. With a vaccine not immediately available containment seems to be the next best option. It is difficult to say that any country has a full handle on containment at this point. Economic activity will slow down as production, travel, and consumption patterns are dented globally. The spending and growth depend on how far the virus spreads, and how materially any quarantine measures and general fear slow normal pattern of spending. One main problem is that the quarantines that kept people from working damaged supply chain from China into the world. Some multinational firms are likely to relocate their supply chains out of China. Global trade has likely suffered an unrecoverable loss. A second problem is that the virus’ spread across the continents may cause people to suspend some of their local spending patterns. Those countries that depend the most on trade may see the biggest economic growth reductions. These include China and its main trading partners in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. The virus also is likely to adversely impact U.S. economic growth, but to lesser degree than internationally.

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